Saturday morning, March 26

Here's how the political situation is shaking down. [Opposition leader Felix] Kulov is out of prison and running security. [Former foreign minister Roza] Otunbayeva is emerging as a sort of spokesperson. [Former prime minister Kurmanbek] Bakiyev is stepping in as temporary president and has been elected prime minister. [Ousted president Askar] Akayev sends e-mail threatening to return, but there is very little support for him now, if there ever was.

The irony of this situation is that it was all an accident. It started with a group of a few hundred who wanted to speak to Akayev on Thursday afternoon. Thugs hired by one of the recently elected deputies were pushed back into the police when the small group of demonstrators resisted. Suddenly everything flashed, and the show of force disappeared. The militia simply stood aside, and let the White House be taken. It literally happened in less than an hour. But all this CNN, BBC and others are reporting in detail.

Not so perceptive their people on the ground, though. CNN consistently misinterpreted the story about the parliament building, for example. The students had gone to the parliament, which is right next to the university, to see what was happening with the new parliament - actually the old parliament, which had not disbanded, since the recently elected parliament does not sit until May. (Those elections have been declared illegal by the supreme court, so new parliamentary elections will come soon. Or so is the report. You will know how well the country is stabilizing if plans suddenly emerge to delay or cancel those elections. If that happens, the whole situation might flash again.)

There was no effort to seize the parliament. Aside from working up a power-sharing arrangement, the great task that the new government will have is to stabilize the south. Anti-government forces have held Osh and Jalalabad for nearly two weeks now, and the issues there aren't necessarily the same here. Bakiyev is from the south, however, so that may help with the ethnic differences. When CNN reported that Al Qaeda was lurking in the wings, nothing could be less true. This is not a religious revolution, though if stability doesn't return soon, the religious may become a matter to be concerned about. There is still considerable risk here, especially if the new government finds itself as much at odds with the south as did Akayev's regime. At that level, the next two or three weeks will be crucial. We can only hope.

The streets were calm last night on the whole. I think everyone wanted to take a deep breath. The CNN reporter here, again, got everything wrong. He reported going back to his hotel (no doubt the Hyatt) after eating out (where, I wonder -- all the restaurants I know are closed), and observing "gangs" (his word) of young men roving the city. He didn't understand that these were vigilante groups, which, of course, is just as unsettling as looters. (At least report the story correctly!) Looting did take place yesterday, but in the outlying regions of the city where there is greater poverty. If the government can't stop it, I suspect that more and more people will take matters into their own hands, and there will be more "gangs" of young men. At least there are few guns held privately in the country. Steel bars and hammers are quite nasty enough in the hands of a mob. A cold rain and wind came in last night, and that cooled things.

There is no plan to take Americans out of country. If you have lived abroad, you know that the U.S. takes a very hands-off approach to situations like this. If evacuation is ordered, the embassy will help get me to the nearest safe country, probably Kazakstan. This is very unlikely to happen, though. I predict that in a week Bishkek will be back to something approximating normal life. But you will still see it in people's faces.

Yesterday afternoon I went to the little magazine (market) beneath my apartment to see what I could buy. It's interesting, by the way, living with a few hundred som (around $20), wondering when I will be able to change money. Like everyone, I was looking for some bread. Like everyone, I found none. The candy bins were being filled, though. Kyrgyz love sweets. And I was able to find a large jug of water. So this morning I can have coffee, made in the Turkish fashion, from the last of my fresh beans.
Bill

This information posted 05 APRIL 2005